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Stock Picks For May 16th

David Trainer

President of New Constructs

Nashville, TN

 

 

Heidrick & Struggles Intl: HSII

 

HSII - Heidrick & Struggles Intl Inc - Small cap special. Rough year for this stock. Recently torpedoed by disappointing first quarter results. Perfect example of investors focusing on the wrong data. Earnings are irrelevant, cash is king - Warren Buffet. Cash flows are very strong. The business has an excellent franchise. Int'l opportunities are huge as emerging markets continue to develop and start to look for more than just factory workers. Current valuation makes it a steal as stock price implies the profits will never grow again.

 

Sunoco: SUN

 

SUN - Sunoco - trading at ridiculously low level of valuation relative to cash flow. The current price implies profit will drop by 80% and never grow again. Our research shows SUN's economic cash flows are rising, not falling. SUN is one of the most profitable companies in the market based on Return On Invested Capital. Demand for oil may be softening, but it is not plummeting by 80%. 

SELL:

 

AVB - AvalonBay Communities - big-time misleading earnings. Last year AVB reported that Net Income rose by $91mm while our research shows cash flows declined by $127mm. Making matters worse is the market's expectations for future cash flows - which are very high. In fact the current stock price implies that AVB is going to grow revenues and profits at over 6% for each of the next 60 years. The 5yr avg growth rate for AVB is 4%.

 

PRGO - Perrigo Company - for every $ of net assets, management has written off 35 cents, not a good track record for creating value for shareholders. Making matters worse, the valuation of the stock gives me a nosebleed as it implies that the company's profits will grow by 1000% next year. The stock's valuation has risen to giddy heights.

 

 

http://www.newconstructs.com

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